With more than six months to go until the 2026 NBA Draft there is a lot that we know and a lot that is still very much projection. I thought it would be a fun exercise to try to predict the 14 lottery picks and to put it on record at this point, six months ahead of the draft.
I’ve divided this lottery list into four sections: Lottery Locks, Near Locks, Probably Lottery and Possibly Maybe Lottery. And I have included a Late Lottery/Mid First Rounder section, just to cover my *ss :)
The toughest projection is for Jayden Quaintance who has yet to play this season for Kentucky. The 6-10 PF/C is a special talent but injuries have been in issue and at this point it’s hard to move him up or down the board until we see more.
It was also tough to cut this list off at 14 since there are about 20 players who have made a strong case for being in the lottery. This is a deep first round and teams drafting in the mid to late teens could be getting lottery level talents.
One thing to note is there are no players playing outside the U.S. projected in the lottery, although there are two international born players on this list, who are now playing college basketball (Avdalas and Steinback). And Tounde Yessoufou who is challenging for a lottery spot. Karim Lopez (NBL, Mexico) and Dash Daniels (NBL, Australia) both project as mid first rounders and could end up crashing the lottery party if they close the season strong and shine during the pre-draft process.
Every year we see a few late risers and this year will be no different. I feel good about 7 or 8 of these predicted lottery picks and sort of good about the top 10 or 11. Beyond that anything could happen. We’ll find out in six months how many of these picks were right.
Lottery Locks
1) Darryn Peterson – PG/SG – Kansas – Even after missing some time with a hamstring injury DP is still a lock to go in the top 3. There’s still a chance either AJ or Cam take over the top spot but I’d put my money on DP.
2) Cameroon Boozer – PF – Duke – Boozer is a special talent who will very likely get drafted no.2 or no.3 overall in June…with a small chance that he goes no.1. Either way, he’s a clear lottery lock. I have some very, very small reservations about his ultimate upside but not enough to mention (who wait…).
3) AJ Dybantsa – SF – BYU – AJ is another top 3 lock with no.1 overall still a possibility. For that to happen his outside shot would need to fall at a higher clip (and on higher volume) and we’d probably need to see Darryn Peterson take a small step back. But AJ has been looking like a monster lately and putting the basketball world on notice.
4) Caleb Wilson – PF – North Carolina – I’m completely enamored with Caleb Wilson and think his upside is right there with the top 3 prospects in this class. He’s a freak athlete with rare movements skills. I doubt he breaks into the top 3 picks in June but his talent is right up there with those guys. His offensive game is mostly predicated on being a physically dominant athlete but he has shown some really nice feel/touch on his turn around jumper. And he’s got elite defensive potential and shows flashes of being able to guard all over the court. He’ll have to improve his focus and awareness on that end but his upside is elite.
Near Locks
5) Kingston Flemings – PG – Houston – The biggest riser on boards during the early part of the season, Flemings is having an awesome start to this college career. I first had him mocked in the first round of this draft class about two years ago (during his junior season) so I’m not totally surprised by this but man, I didn’t expect him to be this good this quickly.
6) Mikel Brown Jr. – PG – Louisville – Mikel has had some ups and down to start the season but still has all the talent in the world, a 5-star pedigree and he shows flashes of elite level ability, making him a very, very likely lottery selection. I still have him right around the top 5, although there’s fierce competition from the likes of Kingston Fleming and Labaron Philon.
Probably Lottery
7) Labaron Philon – PG – Alabama – Very few players have been better this season than Mr. Philon who looks so comfortable running the show for the Crimson Tide. He’s a really smart and crafty player who controls the pace of the game, is a big time shot maker, penetrates at will and shows leadership abilities that are beyond his years.
8) Jayden Quaintance – C – Kentucky – I think JQ is clearly one of the top 14 talents in this draft class but there is a bit of an injury concern, and he has yet to make his season debut after having ACL surgery last March. Still, all signs point to a full recovery and we could see him make his season debut soon. He’s a sophomore who is younger than many freshmen and he has a elite size and physical tools. This draft class is already loaded but if JQ comes back strong he would solidify what is perhaps the one weak position, the true center position.
9) Neoklis Avdalas – PG/SF – Virginia Tech (Greece) – Neo is a polarizing prospect with some big believers and plenty of skeptics. I fall more on the side of the believers, seeing rare ball skills for a young 6-9 wing and the type of game that should translate well to the NBA level. I don’t know if he goes top 10 but I have a feeling NBA teams won’t let him slip too far.
Possibly Maybe Lottery
10) Hannes Steinback – C – Washington (Germany) – Steinback might be the best rebounder in college basketball, which isn’t bad for a teenager who is playing his first season in the U.S. of A. He’s also got an interesting mix of power and finesse on the offensive end, showing that he’s much more than just a play finisher around the rim. While I don’t necessarily see star potential with young Steinback he looks like a rock solid prospect who could hold his own playing some NBA minutes right away, doing the things that he does best, while working to continue to expand his game.
11) Thomas Haugh – SF/PF – Florida – Haugh might not be the most tantalizing prospect like some of the high upside freshmen on this list but he projects as a very solid NBA role player who just keeps getting better and better. Near the end of the lottery teams could be looking for that type of safe bet, rather than swinging for the unknown upside type of prospect. I can see Haugh coming off the board anywhere in the 10-20 range of the draft.
12) Braylon Mullins is just starting to find his groove after missing the start of the season with an ankle injury. He’s going to have some ups and downs as a perimeter shot taker/maker but he’s got some special scoring ability that very well could land him in the lottery. At this point I think it’s a toss up between him and the other players in this range but I believe enough in his special shooting ability that he gets the nod over Peat, Yessoufou etc.
13) Nate Ament was a near consensus top 10 pick coming into the season but has been pretty dreadful to start the season. His outside shot hasn’t been falling and he lacks the ability to separate or blow-by defenders. He doesn’t score at the rim or play above the rim on either end. He has shown a nice ability to draw fouls and he still shows promise as a shooter, even though the results have been poor so far. If he hits a hot streak during the second half of the season he’ll be right back in that top 10 convo but for now I see him sliding to the late lottery or mid first round. I have him listed in the late lottery here with the expectation that he’ll have a few breakout performances later this season and a solid draft season…but I don’t love this ranking.
14) Cameron Carr – SG – Baylor – At no.14 I’m going with Cameron Carr because of his awesome mix of elite shooting touch/range and his above the rim ability. He’s got silly length, which not only helps him play above the rim and get his shot off but helps him guard multiple positions and block a lot of shots on D. He’s been one of the big breakout stars this season so far and if he keeps it up it’ll be hard to pass on him in this range of the draft.
Late Lottery/Mid First Round Mix
Koa Peat – PF – Arizona – Peat is rock solid. He might not be a superstar or even a star at the next level but he’s very likely to be a solid long-term NBA player who could be a starter on a contending team. The one area that is missing from his game (and would take his game to a whole new level) is the 3pt shot. If he can expand his range and become a threat from downtown then the sky is the limit. As it stands now I think he would go lottery in a weaker draft but I think he’s a fridge lottery prospect in this very strong draft class.
Tounde Yessoufou – SG/SF – Baylor – Tounde started the season near the top five on my mock but has had some mixed results early in his Baylor career. He’s still just as impressive of an athlete and can overpower defenders on his way to the rim. He’s also been a capable shot-maker who shows promise as a spot up shooter. It’ll be good to see him continue to improve his handles, develop his feel and become a better finisher around the rim (when he’s not dunking the ball). I still believe in his upside/rate of improvement and could see him having a big second half of the season. But with that said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall into the mid/late teens on draft day if some of these improvements don’t take place.
Michigan forward Yaxel Lendeborg is looking like a leading candidate for player of the year in college basketball and the type of prospect that could really hit the ground running in the NBA. He’s a very high feel player who does a ton of winning things on both ends. He’s got the physical profile to be a star in the NBA and seems to have a very high floor as well. I really like him as a late lottery prospect but could see him falling to the 15-20 range on draft day… Even as I write this I’m not feeling good about it. I should probably have him higher!
Another potential lottery pick is Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. who is balling out over the first part of his freshman season. It’s hard to overstate just how solid and comfortable he looks running the show for the Hogs. He can get his shot whenever he wants and is really deadly on step-back jumpers. He’s not the tallest guard but is built like a tank and looks able to hold his own on both ends against taller opponents. I really want to put him higher…he should be in the lottery… I hate this ranking!
One dark-horse candidate is the quickly-rising Illinois guard Keaton Wagler. Rising all the way to the lottery might seem like a long-shot but his play as of late has been first round worthy and his arrow is pointing up. He’s only 18 and is just scratching the surface of how good he can be. He’s already showing really nice play-making ability and the ability to take over the game on the offensive end. There’s a real chance he’s a two year player in college but at this point it’s easy to imagine him as a one and done first rounder with just a little lottery potential.
A player that I’m still holding out some hope for is Iowa guard Bennett Stirtz. The 6-4 senior is posting really solid numbers for the Hawkeyes but has looked a bit pedestrian playing up at a high major level. He’s a very good shot maker and play-maker but doesn’t really have blow-by ability and struggles to get to the rim. There’s a chance he’s more of a solid third guard at the NBA level rather than a high level starter.
Lastly, based on pure talent Chis Cenac Jr. should be a lot higher on this list and could even challenge for a top ten pick. That is still a possibility but based on the depth of talent in this draft and the fact that he’s a somewhat raw player I think he could slide. Actually, I would love to see him stay in school for a second season and become a dominant player in college basketball before jumping to the draft. I could see him as a top 5 pick next year if he does so.
See where all these players land in my latest mock draft