Predictions: Giving The Top 20 Prospects A Three-Pick Draft Range

Here’s an exercise in predicting the draft range of the top 20 prospects on my board, giving each player a three pick range. The top of the list seemed fairly easy to predict but things quickly became difficult. My hope is to get at least half of these right.

It’ll be fun to look back at these predictions after the first round to see how many were right and how many were wrong. And how many were way off. I’ll mark the correct predictions in green and the incorrect ones in red. So check back later for the full results.

3-Pick Draft Ranges

Zaccharie Risacher – SF – France Picks 1-3 – This one feels easy but this is a draft in which anything can happen. I’d bet a bucket that Risacher is off the board before pick 4.
Donovan Clingan – C – UConn – Picks 3-5 – This one is hard. The Hawks could take him at no.1 but there’s also a decent chance he falls out of the top 3. My best bet is a team trades up to no.3 to select Clingan.
Alexandre Sarr – PF/C – Perth, NBL (France) – Picks 1-3 – Sarr seems to be destined to be selected no.2 by the Wizards. There’s a chance the Hawks take him at no.1, even though he has refused to workout for the team. And there’s a very slim chance he falls to no.4 or below.
Stephon Castle – PG/SG – UConn – Picks 4-6 – I feel fairly confident in this one. Maybe the Wizards would take him at no.2 but Sarr seems to be their guy. The Rockets at no.3 don’t seem like a good fit. The Hornets would be a nice landing spot at no.6 but I think he’ll be off the board by then, most likely to the Spurs at no.4.
Tidjane Salaun – PF – France – Picks 6-8 – This one is tough. I’m super high on Salaun but I doubt he goes in the top 5. And he could fall past no.8. But the Hornets, Blazers and Spurs would all be good landing spots for him in the 6-8 range.
Dalton Knecht – SG – Tennessee – Picks 6-8 – This one is really tough. I love the idea of Knecht to the Pistons at 5 or the Hornets at 6 but think he could fall to the Grizzlies at no.9. I’ll go with the 6-8 range for the sharp-shooting wing.
Cody Williams – SF – Colorado – Picks 6-8 – Another tough one. Williams is high on my board but I wouldn’t be surprised if he falls in the 8-10 range. Or goes no.5 to the Pistons. Who knows!
Matas Buzelis – SF – Ignite – Picks 5-7 – The Pistons seem like a likely landing spot for Buzelis. The Blazers would be a good fit as well. I feel pretty good about having him in the 5-7 range.
Reed Sheppard – PG/SG – Kentucky – Picks 3-5 – I’m slightly lower on Sheppard than consensus but he’s a great fit to the Rockets at 3, if they keep the pick, the Spurs at 4 and the Pistons at 5.
Devin Carter – PG/SG – Providence – Picks 7-9 – I could see Carter going as high as no.6 or as low as 11. So I’ll go in the middle of that range and predict he comes off the board in the 7-9 range.
Rob Dillingham – PG – Kentucky – Picks 8-10 – Another super tough one. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dillingham falls a bit in this draft. But the Spurs at no.8 and the Jazz at 10 are good landing spots. I have very little confidence in this prediction.
Nikola Topic – PG – Serbia – Picks 10-12 – The knee injury really complicates this. His ceiling seems to be no.8 to the Spurs but the injury could scare off the lottery teams and he could slide. I like him to the Jazz at 10 and the Thunder at 12.
Ron Holland – SF – Ignite – Picks 10-12 – Dany Ainge drafted Jaylen Brown and could see Holland as a similar type of athletic, developmental, upside wing. The Bulls at no.11 could use an athletic wing as well. But there’s also a chance Holland falls past no.12 due to shooting concerns.
Yves Missi – C – Baylor (Cameroon) – Picks 17-19 – As we get farther down the board this becomes much harder. Missi is very high on my board but probably won’t be selected in the lottery and could slide into the 20’s. I like him to Toronto at no.19 but maybe a team trades up to no.17 for the high upside center.
Zach Edey – C – Purdue (Canada) – Picks 13-15 – Edey is one of the most polarizing prospects in this draft and has a very wide draft range. He’d be a nice addition the Kings, the Blazers or the Heat in the 13-15 range.
Kyshawn George – PG/SF – Miami (Switzerland) – 18-20 – There are rumors that NBA teams could be higher on George than this but there are some nice fits for him in the 18-20 range. Or he could fall into the 20’s. This one is hard to say.
Ja’Kobe Walter – SG – Baylor – Picks 15-17 – Walter has been mocked from the lottery to the late first round and there is no strong indication of where he’ll get drafted. The 15-17 range might be too early for him, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a NBA team sees a lot of value and upside in him.
Jared McCain – PG/SG – Duke – Picks 16-18 – McCain would be a great fit on the 76ers at no.16 (if they keep the pick), a solid addition to the Lakers at no.17 (if they keep the pick) and a great fit at 18 to the Magic.
Tristan Da Silva – PF – Colorado (Germany) – Picks 16-18 – This range of the draft is filled with teams looking to make playoff pushes and could be in the market for an older, NBA-ready player like da Silva.
Johnny Furphy – SG – Kansas (Australia) – Picks 21-23 – Furphy’s draft range is wide, about late lottery to late first round. He’s an upside prospect who might take some time but could pay off down the line.

We’ll see how many of these are right. The top of the list seemed easy enough but I don’t have a ton of confidence in the predictions towards the end. We’ll find out real soon which ones are right.

UPDATE: I got 9 out of 20 draft ranges right. Was hoping to get at least 10. I’ll do this again next year, it was a fun and difficult exercise.

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