Last year I started a new exercise of trying to predict within three picks the draft ranges of the top 20 prospects on my board. For each correct prediction one point is scored. This is harder than it sounds. The top few picks are easy and after that things get crazy pretty quickly.
Last year I scored a total of 9 points on the 20 picks. The one I was farthest off from was Dalton Knecht, who I predicted would go in the 6-8 range but ended up going no.17. I was also far off on Johnny Furphy.
I’m hoping to score at least 10 points this year. We’ll find out in a few hours!!!
Without further preamble, here are my draft range predictions for my top 20 prospects in the 2025 draft.
- Cooper Flagg – SF/PF – Duke – Picks 1-3 – Flagg is going no.1 and so this one is lock. I’m highlighting it in green and scoring the point. Next question please.
- Dylan Harper – PG/SG – Rutgers – Picks 1-3 – There’s about a 99.463% chance Harper goes at no.2, most likely to the Spurs or to the Bucks if they make a big Giannis trade. I won’t mark it in green until after the draft but this one is pretty much a lock.
- Ace Bailey – SF/PF – Rutgers – Picks 4-6 – I think there’s still a chance Ace goes at no.3 (possibly in a trade) but I’m pretty sure that if he falls past 3 he’ll go in the 4-6 range. If Brooklyn or New Orleans wants him they’ll probably have to trade up.
- Tre Johnson – SG – Texas – Picks 4-6 – I’m not as sure on this one but still put it over 50% that he gets drafted in this range. There’s an outside chance that he falls a bit to the 7-8 range. He’d be a nice fit in New Orleans if he does fall that far. OK, I’m almost convincing myself to move his range down a spot… this one is tough.
- VJ Edgecombe – SG – Baylor – Picks 3-5 – This one feels pretty safe as well. But crazy things can happen on draft night. If the Sixers pass on VJ or trade the pick then the Hornets would be a good fit at no.4, as would the Jazz at no.5.
- Kon Knueppel – SG – Duke – Picks 5-7 – There’s a chance Kon goes no.4 to the Hornets or maybe even no.3 to the 76ers but I’m going to predict that he falls a little farther.
- Jeremiah Fears – PG – Oklahoma – Picks 5-7 – I feel good about this one. There’s a chance he falls to Brooklyn at no.8 but I think he goes a bit higher. He’s going to be so fun to watch in the NBA! There have been some rumors that Charlotte likes him at no.4 but it’s hard to imagine a LaMelo, Fears pairing.
- Carter Bryant – SF – Arizona – Picks 9-11 – I think there’s an outside chance Bryant goes one spot higher at no.8 but most likely between 9 and 14. I’m high on Bryant to I’m sticking with the upper end of that range.
- Khaman Maluach – C – Duke – Picks 6-8 – I feel pretty confident in this 6-8, although if a team feels desperate for a center they could trade up with Utah at no.5 to snag him. I have him rated a few spots lower but I get the appeal.
- Egor Demin – PG – BYU – Picks 11-13 – Hmmm, another hard one. I think the Suns at no.10 need to go with a big so I’ll start Demin’s range just after that pick.
- Derek Queen – PF/C – Maryland – Picks 9-11 – I ended up with Queen 11th on my big board and I don’t feel great about it. I think there’s a real chance his offensive game translates and he becomes one of the best players in this class. It seems most teams have Maluach slightly ahead of him, which could lead to Queen falling out of the top 10. I think there will be a lot of movement in this range of the lottery and a team could trade up (or down) to get Queen in the 9-11 range.
- Collin Murray-Boyles – PF – South Carolina – Picks 11-13 – I’m fascinated to see where CMB lands and how his game transitions to the NBA. He’s such a fun player and I think he has a real chance to surprise to the upside. He’s got a wide apparent draft range starting maybe as high as no.9 and going all the way to the late teens. I think he’ll be drafted closer to the top of that range.
- Kasparas Jakucionis – PG – Illinois – Picks 12-14 – I don’t know that the teams selecting in this range need Jaku but it’s hard to imagine him falling much farther and I don’t think he goes top 10. So I’m picking this range, thinking maybe we’ll see a trade.
- Joan Beringer – C – France – Picks 13-15 – This might be a bit optimistic for Beringer but we’ve seen time and time again NBA teams value traits and upside and Beringer has elite traits and stupid upside.
- Cedric Coward – SF – Washington State – 14-16 – This feels like the top end of his range but who knows, sometimes these late bloomers/late risers just keep moving up and end up higher than anyone expects.
- Noa Essengue – PF – France – Picks 9-11 – I’ve been all over the map with ranking Noa and I think there’s probably a wide range of opinions in NBA circles as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes no.9 to the Raptors or falls to the mid/late teens.
- Thomas Sorber – PF/C – Georgetown – Picks 12-14 – There are a lot of teams in the 8-15 range that need a center and so Sorber will likely be a hot commodity. The foot injury is a cause for some concern but when healthy he’s a lottery level talent. I doubt he falls past OKC at no.15 (although they are rumored to be trading up to target a player).
- Rasheer Fleming – PF – St. Joseph’s – Picks 19-21 – At this point of the draft it’s really hard to know where a player will land. Fleming could go in the mid teens or the mid twenties. I’m a fan. He’s going to take some time but the tools are special and the 3pt shot is real.
- Nique Clifford – SF – Colorado State – Picks – 19-21 – The Heat at no.20 would make a lot of sense for Nigue and so I’ll put that pick right in the center of his range.
- Will Riley – SG – Illinois (Canada) – Picks 20-22 – He’s a boom or bust guy. I love his scoring/shot-making and could see him being really good. But he might lead the G League in scoring for a year first.
I’ll drop back into this blog post after the draft to highlight the correct and incorrect predictions so check back then! And as always, thanks for reading!
Speaking of the draft, here’s my latest and soon-to-be-final 2025 NBA Mock Draft!