The 2026 NBA Draft Lottery, which will take place on Sunday, May 10th, has something for everyone. We have the usual cast of lovable losers, we have a title contender in line for a top four pick and we have unprotected picks changing hands from atrocious trades. And of course we have the OKC Thunder in the mix for a high draft pick, which should terrify the league.
Lovable Losers
We didn’t expect much at all from the Washington Wizards, the Brooklyn Nets, the Sacramento Kings or the Utah Jazz this season, and they delivered everything we expected. This could be a pivotal draft for all four lowly franchises.
Landing in the top four would be nice but even in the 5-7 range there will be franchise-changing talents available for these lovable losers. There are a lot of good fits with all of the top prospects but a few that stand out would be Boozer on the Wizards, Jazz or Nets, Dybantsa on the Jazz and any influx of talent to the Kings. Literally anything would help.
But none of these franchises can afford to select just based off fit. It should be best player available for all.
A Title Contender At The Top Of The Draft
And then there are the Indiana Pacers, who were won win away from a NBA title a year ago and now have a 52% chance to land one of the coveted top four picks. All of the fab four prospects would fit well in Indy but I’m especially intrigued by the idea of Darryn Peterson playing off of Tyrese Haliburton. I think. that combo could carry the Pacers right back to the NBA finals.
There is a chance that the Pacers lose this pick to the Clippers, if it falls out of the top 4, from the Ivica Zupac trade. That would be a devastating outcome for the Pacers, who tanked all season and have a chance to set their franchise up for the next decade in this draft. That will be the biggest drama I’ll be watching on May 10.
Atrocious Trades
Speaking of the Clippers, another of the big story-lines is the Clippers failing to make the playoffs and handing the OKC Thunder yet another lottery pick. This pick is the final piece of the trade that brought SGA to the Thunder – and yes, the Clippers are still paying the price for that bone-headed move. The Thunder have about a 7% chance of landing one of the top four picks.
The Pelicans are a team known for mediocrity and questionable decision-making, and the hiring of Joe Dumars and co. ensured that those trends would continue. In the strongest draft of the past decade the Pelicans will send their lottery pick to the Atlanta Hawks as part of the 2025 draft day deal to acquire Derek Queen. Queen is a really nice young prospect but if this year’s pick ends up in the top four (29.3% chance) they’ll be filled with regret. Even if the pick lands in the expected mid lottery range it’s still tough to justify trading away such a valuable asset, even for a stud like Queen.
Fading Glory That Needs A Boost
The odds are against it but if somehow the Warriors could jump into the top four it would be a giant boost for the fading dynasty. The addition of a Peterson or Boozer level player could help the team make one more championship run…or at least help the transition to the next era. The two timeline thing didn’t work a few years ago (thanks in part to terrible drafting) but now it’s time to start to build for the future.
The Bucks are also a team in desperate need of lottery luck if they want to keep any semblance of a championship window open.
The Mavs Are Ascending
Even if they stay in the 8 or 9 range of the draft the Dallas Mavericks will get to add a key piece to a franchise that suffered the worst trade in basketball history, only to turn around a few months later and add their next superstar in Cooper Flagg. Adding a Mikel Brown or Keaton Wagler level guard would be an awesome addition to the ascending franchise.
The Bulls Are Building
The Chicago Bulls face a pivotal moment in their franchise history. They finally landed some very promising players in Giddey and Buzelis but now face a coaching change, after Billy Donovan resigns. I like what they’re building in Chicago and think they could be a really exciting team if they hit on this draft pick, which will likely end up at either 9 or 10.
This would be a great year for them to add a high scoring guard to go along with their promising big guards and wings. Mikel Brown would be fun. Or a big like Hannes Steinbach to bolster their frontcourt.
I think Dillingham can be a really nice player off the bench and Noa Essengue has a chance to develop, giving them a couple more young guys to be excited about. They probably won’t be a playoff team next year but I think they’re heading in the right direction, especially if they land a quality coach to lead the charge.
Prospects Withdrawing From The 2026 Draft
I’ll have a few more mock draft updates before May 10, as a number of big name prospects are withdrawing from the 2026 draft before the April 26 early entry deadline. I love the NIL rules that encourage players to stay in school. I think it’s great for college basketball and great for draft fans (and for NBA teams for that matter).
The returning players have already bolstered a soft 2027 draft class. There’s still no superstar at the top of the draft but the depth is much improved.
Here’s my latest updated 2026 Mock
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