To Declare Or Not Declare? That Is The Question

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Freshmen “stay” or “go” decisions for the 2026 NBA Draft

In this historically strong freshmen class there are many obvious “go” decisions – players who will most certainly go pro and declare for the 2026 NBA Draft. But there are also a lot of very tough decisions to be made in the coming weeks/months with players weighing the option of going pro vs. the the chance to stay in school, earn good NIL money and prepare for the objectively weaker 2027 NBA Draft.

Alijah Arenas ponders his NBA Draft decision

Here is a look at the freshmen prospects broken down into five categories: definitely going pro, very likely going, probably going, should return to school and obviously returning to school.

As I write this at the beginning of March Madness I know there’s a chance that a few of these prospects will shine during the tournament and gain a lot of draft momentum (which could alter the calculus of their draft decision), but at this point in the season we have a pretty solid idea of who these players are and if they’re ready to jump into the draft or not.

Easy Decisions To Declare For The Draft

I’m not going to write about each of these obvious decisions but in short, the top of the draft is going to be stacked with one and done freshmen. In fact, almost all of the lottery selections are likely to be freshmen, possibly as many as 12 or 13 of the first 14 picks. Here are the freshmen who have an easy and obvious decision to enter the draft:

Very Likely Declaring For The Draft

  • Hannes Steinbach – PF/C – Washington (Germany) – He’s been incredible this season, showing elite rebounding ability to go along with a really solid all around game. He runs the floor hard, has great hands and is a good finisher. I don’t know that he’ll be a star at the next level but he should be a really solid starter for a long time, which equals lottery pick in June.
  • Braylon Mullins – SG – UConn – I feel like Mullins never fully had his breakout this season and we’ve yet to really see what he can do. I’m very high on him and would consider him as high as top 10.
  • Brayden Burries – PG/SG – Arizona – After a slow start Burries has been awesome for Arizona over the past two months and is playing like a lottery level talent. His draft stock has been as hot as anyone’s recently and he will almost certainly take advantage of that and enter the draft. I think he can be a high level starter in the league.
  • Chris Cenac Jr. – PF – Houston – I had Cenac Jr. mocked has high as no.5 overall to start the season and his recent play has started to justify such a high ranking. Now, there are so many other star prospects that have emerged this season that it’s unlikely we’ll see him get back to that lofty ranking, but he should at least challenge for the top 10/late lottery. He’s got a world of upside with his athletic tools and ability to space the floor (which is somewhat theoretical at this point but shows a lot of promise). Filling out his frame and improving from the FT line (and getting to the FT line more) will be key for the next steps of his development. I’d draft him in the 9-15 range.

Probably Declaring/Testing The Draft Waters

  • Alijah Arenas – SG – USC – Arenas has had almost as strange a year as Darryn Peterson. The mercurial 6-7 guard had some major set-backs but has recovered well and shown some nice flashes in his limited games this season. He can score the ball in bunches but so far the efficiency leaves a lot to be desired. He’s been rusty and away from the game for a while so it makes sense that his shot would be off but shooting just 34% from the field and 21% from the 3pt line is pretty atrocious. Any team drafting him would be banking on the tools, the pedigree and the upside but would probably have to wait a few years for the NBA production to come around. Arenas could be better served developing for another year in college and aiming to be a top 10 pick next season.
  • Koa Peat – PF – Arizona – After a very hot start to the season Peat has been solid but not spectacular for a very, very good Arizona team. In fact, he’s been only the third best freshman on the team for most of the season, with Burries and Kharchenkov having awesome seasons for the Cats. Still, Peat is primed to be a first rounder, especially if he has a strong draft process. I think it makes a lot of sense for him to test the waters and most likely stay in the draft if he gets solid feedback.
  • Ivan Kharchenkov – SF – Arizona – I’ve been holding onto some hope that Ivan would be back for a second season next year but the way he’s been playing it seems more and more likely that he’ll enter the draft. I have him as a late first rounder in my most recent mock, which could be enough for him to leave school for the pros. If he does return he could challenge for the lottery next year.
  • Tounde Yessoufou – SG – Baylor (Benin) – Tounde has not had the season that I (and many of us) expected him to have. He’s done some nice things and had a few really solid games but overall he’s looked a lot more unrefined with his offensive game and not as NBA ready as expected. It’ll be a tough call for him this Spring, whether to take his game to the pros and develop in a NBA system or return to school with his sights on being a lottery pick next year. As a lover of college basketball I hope he returns!
  • Meleek Thomas – SG – Arkansas – A scoring fiend who needs to round out his game, Thomas looks the part of a first guard off the bench type of player at the next level, with some starter potential if he improves his defense and play-making. I would love to see him stay another year in school but that feels like a long shot.
  • Mor Massamba Diop – C – Arizona State (Senegal) – Diop has been awesome this season, showing really solid athleticism for a 7-1 guy and an emerging offensive game as well. I still see him as a developmental player and if he goes into the draft he’ll likely hone his skills in the G League next season. Going back to school would be a fine option and there’s a real chance he’s a first rounder next year.
  • Ebuka Okorie – PG – Stanford – Okorie has been a bright shinning star for the Cardinal this season and has been one of the most impressive freshmen the country. I think he’ll test the waters and could very well end up in the draft but he could also have a monster payday coming for him if he transfers up to a bigger program. I’d love to see him play a season at a blue blood school and then enter the 2027 draft.
  • Amari Allen – SF – Alabama – One of the breakout freshmen this season, Allen is a rock solid all around forward who could be a starter or high-end role player at the next level. He’s a fringe first rounder who will have a really tough stay/go decision to make in a few weeks.

Freshmen Who Should Return To School

  • Cayden Boozer – PG – Duke – It’ll be very tempting to jump to the pro’s with his brother but Cayden is pretty far from being NBA ready and would likely spend a lot of time in the G League if he does go to the draft after this season. Another year or two at Duke would do wonders for his game and his draft stock, and would allow him to become a Blue Devil legend, as one of the best point guards in program history.
  • Malachi Moreno – C – Kentucky – A skilled big with soft hands and natural strength. Needs to stay in school and improve his agility, conditioning and refine his game. Has a lot of upside but also a lot of development to do.
  • Eric Reibe (Germany) – C – UConn – I think Reibe could be a lottery pick with one more year in school, and so it would be a no brainer for him to return to UConn.
  • Daniel Jacobsen – C – Purdue – Jacobsen is such an impressive guy as a 7-3+ big man who moves well and flashes some good ball skills. He’s not a huge part of the rotation this season but should step into a much bigger role next year. I see him as a potential first round pick in 2027.
  • Neoklis Avdalas – SF – Virginia Tech (Greece) – After being skeptical of Avdalas to star the season I drank the cool aid in a big way after the first few weeks. But that was way too premature and his streak of hot play faded quickly and had a really tough second half of the season.
  • Allen Graves – PF – Santa Clara – Graves has been awesome this season for the Broncos. He’s a sturdy 6-9 forward who plays with great poise, decision making and has some finesse to his game, despite being a burly dude. He’s a knockdown 3pt shooter who forces defenders to step out, allowing him to drive and make plays for others. I’d love to see him transfer up, earn some big NIL money and look to enter the 2027 draft, where he could be a first rounder.
  • David Mirkovic – PF – Illinois (Montenegro) – Mirkovic has been really good this year and looks the part of a NBA level contributor. He’s not the flashiest athlete but can really stretch the floor and rebounds the heck out of the ball. It might be a tough decision for him but I think he should stay in school.
  • Dame Sarr – SF – Duke (Italy) – I was too high on Sarr coming into the season and thought he’d be an easy one and done. I still believe in his upside and have been impressed with his defense and of course his combination of size/athleticism. I think he could be a breakout star next season.
  • Trey McKenney – SG – Michigan – I’m a big McKenney fan and could see him really blossoming in a bigger role next season. He’s a pure shooter who has a really nice feel on the offensive end and the size/strength to score from anywhere on the court. Keep an eye out for him in March and over the course of the next year.
  • Johann Grunloh – C – Virginia (Germany) – He’s got all the tools and a lot of talent but would probably be a fringe second rounder this year. Staying in school seems like a really easy choice for the young German.
  • Shelton Henderson – SF – Miami – Henderson is a monster athlete who can impose his will on the game and power his way into the lane but still has as lot of room for improvement with his ball skills. He could be a monster next season for the Canes or if he enters the transfer portal.
  • Omer Mayer – Purdue (Israel) – Look for Mayer to be one of the better point guards in college basketball next season. He’s got the size, strength and shot making to be a problem at the college level and could eventually be a solid NBA guard.
  • Thijs De Ridder – PF – Virginia (Belgium) – An older freshman who could give the pros a shot now but might as well stay in school and kick butt again next season. He’s a solid player but not an elite prospect IMHO.
  • Jasper Johnson – PG – Kentucky – He’s a talent but is going to take some time to develop his game and fill out his frame. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s a three or four year college player but I do think he can play in the NBA some day.
  • Stefan Vaaks – SF – Providence (Estonia) – Vaaks is a really fun watch; a big wing who can get hot from outside and plays with some flair for the Friars. I could see him testing the draft waters and then possibly transferring up next season. If he does he could be a real star in college basketball next season.
  • Killyan Toure – PG – Iowa State (France) – I think Killyan can be one of the best point guards in college basketball next season if he returns. He’s probably a back-up at the NBA level and would do well to stay in school for at least one more season.

Obviously Staying In School But Have NBA Potential

We’ll see over the coming weeks how all of these decisions play out. As I mentioned above there will be a few of these prospects who really shine in March Madness and their draft stock will get a big bump.

Here’s my latest 2026 Mock Draft and my early 2027 Mock

Thanks for reading! I really appreciate it!

And stay tuned for tons of draft coverage over the next four months.