My fellow draft nerds, I post this article to you today to let you know that The State Of The 2025 NBA Draft Is Strong.
This draft class is a testament to the enduring spirit of athletic excellence and the promise of a new generation of NBA stars and valuable role players that are set to fulfill their lifelong dreams of playing in the best basketball league in the world; the NBA.
Unless you’ve been living under a rock you already know that the 2025 draft class is a really nice group of prospects. This class has been hyped-up for two years and so far many of the top prospects have lived up to the hype. But we’ve also seen some of the top names struggle this year and as a result slide down draft boards.
As usual college freshmen dominate the top of the draft board and will make up the majority of this year’s lottery picks. The international class has been a bit disappointing this year (more on that below) but there is some depth there and some intriguing talents to be had in the mid first to mid second round range.
The grand prize this year is clearly Cooper Flagg, the 6-9 do-it-all forward from Duke. Dylan Harper and Ace Bailey are sensational consolation prizes but there’s not doubt who’s going no.1 this year.
The lottery is full of high upside talents but most come with some question marks. There are also a ton of lead guards (some of whom are a bit undersized) so teams looking for help at the point guard position will have a lot to choose from.
2.5 Superstars At The Top
Every draft class is measured by the star players it produces and the 2025 draft class appears to have two and possibly three superstars at the top.
Cooper Flagg is having a sensational all around impact for the Blue Devils and looks the part of an elite NBA player. The naysayers will complain about his lack of iso-scoring and polish on his jumper but how many 6-9 18yo’s have it all figured out and perfected? His recent 42 point outburst should silence many of those critics.
Flagg does everything on the court at a high level and has a massive impact on the game, including as a force on the offensive end. As good as Dylan Harper has been and as intriguing as Ace Bailey’s upside is, Flagg is still clearly my no.1 prospect.
Dylan Harper came in with high expectations and he has exceeded them. The burly 6-5 guard has been sensational for the Scarlet Knights. He looks like the type of player who will come in and not only hold his own but put up numbers his rookie season. He’s a Cade Cunningham/James Harden level of prospect and is the no.2 prospect on my board at this point, although his teammate is gaining ground:
Ace Bailey has the tools to be the best player in this class – and one of the best players in the world for that matter. But he has work to do with his consistency, shot selection and overall feel for the game. He’s averaging less than 1 assist per game, struggles to make some basic reads and he’s also hitting a woeful 64% from the FT line. He makes some shots that only a few players in the world can make but the elite flashes he shows come and go and too often he struggles to make the right play. He has been finding a better rhythm in recent weeks, showing improved passing and decision making.
Even with the negatives, his elite size, movement skills and shot-making keep him near the top of the draft class. And it’ll be fascinating to see how his game translates and develops over the next few seasons.
I have a hard time imaging that this top 3 will change over the coming months, although, as Kevin Garnett once reminded us, anything is possible.
Guards Galore
The rest of the lottery and much of the first round will be dominated by guard prospects. Most are college freshmen with some international flavor in there as well. I included Edgecombe on this list because I think he can develop into more of a lead guard in time (plus he didn’t really fit on the next list, since his shooting is still a work in progress).
At this point in late January here’s how I rank the 2025 point/primary ball-handler guard prospects:
- Dylan Harper
- Kasparas Jakucionis
- VJ Edgecombe
- Egor Demin
- Nolan Traore
- Jeremiah Fears
- Boogie Fland
- Ben Saraf
- Labaron Philon
- Jase Richardson
Nolan Traore has had a really rough season but I still see him as a potential starting guard with plenty of time to turn it around before draft time. If he was playing college ball instead of playing professional ball in France I think he’d look a lot better, be putting up numbers and still have a lot of the draft buzz he had over the last spring and summer.
Labaron Philon has been a pleasant surprise. I expected him to be really good (I listed him on my beginning of the year big board for a reason) but I didn’t necessarily see him as a first rounder. If he keeps up this level of play the could go in the 20-35 range on draft night(s).
I didn’t list Tahaad Pettiford on this list because I’m hoping he’ll stay another year at Auburn. He’s undersized but so dynamic with the ball in his hands. There will be a role for him at the NBA level.
Shooting Stars
Tools are great but at the end of the day putting the ball in the basket is all that matters. This class has no shortage of big time shooters and scorers. Besides big wing/forwards like Flagg and Bailey there are some really nice talents who can light it up from outside.
I see about 10 wings that could/should go in the first round including:
- Tre Johnson
- Liam McNeeley
- Kon Knueppel
- Carter Bryant
- Hugo Gonzalez
- Josan Sanon
- Kam Jones
- Will Riley
- Alex Karaban
- Ian Jackson
I really like this group of prospects. Tre, Liam and Kon all offer some version of special shot-making ability. Tre is more of an iso-scorer while Liam and Kon are elite off-the-ball floor-spacers. Carter Bryant is oozing with upside and is just starting to get into rhythm for Arizona. Hugo is flying too far under the radar and could surprise on draft night and go in the lottery. He’s a really nice 2-guard talent.
I’m a really big fan of Alex Karaban and see him as a potential elite role player in the league. He would be a great fit on a playoff caliber team that needs a floor-spacing forward who can make plays on defense as well.
Ian Jackson is kind of wildcard for me. He’s hella fun to watch but he’s kind of a black-hole on offense and will have to develop his passing and shot selection. He won’t be the guy in the NBA and so becoming a more complete offensive player will do wonders for his value.
One player not listed above is Miles Byrd who has been playing at an extremely high level for San Diego State. He could be a first rounder.
International Depth and Disappointments
At the beginning of the season I would have bet the world that Nolan Traore would be a top 5 pick but the slippery 6-3 guard from France has been underwhelming so far for Saint-Quentin and is sliding toward the back half of the lottery/mid first round. Croatian forward Michael Ruzic has been out most of the year with a thumb injury and has some work to do to regain his first round buzz. Australian big man Rocco Zikarsky has gone from potential lottery pick to maybe falling out of the first round, while seeing limited minutes for the Brisbane Bullets.
But even with these disappointments there is still a lot of good talent in the international class with plenty of second round talents and a few players emerging as potential first rounders. French PF/C Joan Beringer is an enticing, toolsy talent who has caught the eye of NBA scouts. He’s probably not going to be NBA-ready next season but he has traits you can’t teach and a lot of upside to grow into. Noa Essengue is still credibly intriguing and I wouldn’t be surprised if his stock soars heading into draft season.
At this point I rank the top 15 International Prospects like this:
- Hugo Gonzalez
- Nolan Traore
- Noa Essengue
- Ben Saraf
- Bogoljub Marković
- Michael Ruzic
- Joan Beringer
- Sergio de Larrea
- Noah Penda
- Rocco Zikarsky
- Malique Lewis
- Alex Toohey
- Hansen Yang
- Dame Sarr
- Zacharie Perrin
I think we’ll see at least one of these late first/early second round guys emerge over the next few months and possibly even crash the lottery. It seems to happen every year.
Big Risers
Jeremiah Fears has flown up the board, going from unranked to lottery. He’s skilled with the ball in his hands and can get to his spots. He’s great at penetrating the paint and drawing contact and he’s a big time shot maker. He’s not the biggest or most athletic player but he’s slippery and smooth and places with great pace.
Thomas Sorber looks like a first rounder with late lottery potential. He’s got a great frame, a fundamentally sound game and nice scoring and passing touch. He might not be a star in the league but he looks like he has starter potential.
Michigan forward Danny Wolf plays like a 7-foot guard and has been hugely impressive on both ends of the court. He’s a likely first rounder who will bring an intriguing skill-set to the NBA.
Awesome Upperclassmen
The trend towards drafting more NBA-ready players will likely continue this year with a number of polished and productive upperclassmen moving into the first round territory. Marquette combo guard Kam Jones has expanded his game from being a great 3pt shooter to a highly effective initiator. The 6-4 senior is averaging 6.4 assists to just 1.6 turnovers and looks really good with the ball in his hands. It’ll be tough to keep him out of the first round.
Johni Broome is as steady as they come for Auburn (who had an unfortunate ankle injury) and Villanova forward Eric Dixon has been absolutely balling. Rasheer Fleming has emerged as a potential first rounder and Adou Theiro is putting it all together for the Razorbacks and is looking like a NBA level wing defender and transition player.
So-So Centers
This is not a dominant center class, although it is starting to look better and better as the season goes on. There are a few very intriguing players with theoretical upside but any team looking to fill a need at center might be better served looking in free agency. Still there are a few nice prospects including the aforementioned Thomas Sorber.
Khaman Maluach is really starting to put it together for Duke and his elite upside is clear. He doesn’t need the ball in his hands to have a big impact on the game and he does all the things you hope for in a center.
Asa Newell is having a monster freshman season for Georgia. His natural position is at the 4 but he can play some small-ball 5 so I’ve included him here. He’s a likely to be drafted in the 7-15 range.
Maryland freshman Derek Queen is super-skilled and has incredible interior scoring and passing touch. He’s not your prototypical run/jump athlete but his elite skills could land him in the mid first round.
The top center prospects include:
- Khaman Maluach
- Asa Newell
- Thomas Sorber
- Derek Queen
- Rasheer Fleming
- Danny Wolf
- Maxime Raynaud
- Joan Beringer
- Rocco Zikarsky
- Ryan Kalkbrenner
High Upside Toolsy Talents
At this point we don’t know which young high flyers will declare for the draft and who will stay in school but it looks like there will be a handful of very high upside but unproven players in this class. NBA teams love to bet on tools and natural ability (see Payton Watson as an example), especially in the late first or second round. The following players are guys I would love to see return to school but the allure of the NBA might be too much to pass up.
Drake Powell gets mocked all over the board. He has special athletic ability and it’s easy to project him as a high level two-way player in the league. But he’s very far from a finished product and could be well served to spend another year at UNC. If he does declare he could be a first rounder but there’s a chance he drops to the second round.
Donnie Freeman has all the talent in the world and has shown some really good flashes but it’s clear he would be a developmental player coming into the league. If he declares this year I could see him going in the 25-40 range and spending a year honing his craft in the G League before impacting the NBA game.
Kanon Catchings has been overshadowed at BYU by Demin but Catchings is a big time talent with great natural ability. I’d love to see him stay in school for another year but if he declares he could be one of those “pre-draft” players who goes higher than most expect.
Flory Bidunga is one of my favorite players to watch. The way he moves at his size is tantalizing. But he’s super raw and would be well served to play another year or two at Kansas. If he declared this year I’d draft him in the 30-40 range and bet on the upside but I could also see him sliding to the late second round.
Dink Pate is an interesting case, having played sparingly last year for the Ignite team and getting more run this year for the Capitanes. He’s got really good size for a guard and some intriguing tools but isn’t a pure shooter and for a player who was billed as a play-maker he’s got a negative assist to turnover ratio. After having him mocked in the first round earlier in the year I now see him going in the 30-50 range.
High-Energy Forwards
There are a handful of high energy forwards who won’t all be first rounders but have the type of two-way ability that can be valuable to NBA teams. These are players who have a baseline skill-set and good athletic tools but could take their games to new levels if they can become knockdown shooters. NBA teams are always in need of players who can defend, rebound, set good screens and bring great energy to the court. They might not be the most sexy picks on draft night but the following list of prospects could end up sticking in the league, despite not coming with great fanfare:
- JT Toppin
- Collin Murray-Boyles
- Noah Penda
- Darrion Williams
- Joseph Tugler
Depth To The Early Second Round
At the beginning of the season I was bullish on the depth of this draft class but mid-way through the year I’m less optimistic.
I think there is a solid group of 25 to 35 prospects and then a crap-shot after that. Second round picks rarely make it in the NBA and so this is just par for the course. This year I think the talent drop-off is pretty steep after the early second round area. I see this group has having lots of very good college level players but most of these college stars are more likely to find success playing overseas or in the G League than in the NBA.
State Of The 2025 NBA Draft
The 2025 NBA Draft is shaping up to be a very strong class, even with some of the slow starts/disappointments that we’ve seen this season.
Cooper Flagg has more than lived up to the hype and the top of the draft is stacked with elite talent. The second tier of players in the mid/late lottery offer a lot of intrigue. There will be some very solid role players that come from this group, and maybe one or two more star players.
And we are still early enough in the draft process were we could see a player or two fly up the board and crash the top half of the lottery, adding depth and even more excitement to this already strong group.
A lot will change between now and the draft in June but at this point in late January we can tell for certain that the State of the 2025 NBA Draft is strong!